Political Mavens » Mark Hanes: Messiah of the Market?

So, here’s the deal; one year ago, Mark Hanes of CNBC fame said that he thought the market may have hit a bottom. One year later; it has proven to be prophetic. The market is up 60 percent from last year’s bottom and Hane’s is taking full credit for it. CNBC shamelessly is following suit. All morning long, they have done nothing but extol Mark Hane’s call of the market bottom. Let me share with you just one exchange I heard this morning. Hanes was talking to another market analyst who said, “Hey, Mark, I called the market bottom two weeks after you did, so I did pretty well,” to which Haines said, “ I called it within two minutes.” And, that is when I wanted to throw up.

Okay, Mr. Hanes; just exactly what is the average investor supposed to deduce from your call of the market bottom? Are you the way, the path, the truth and the life? Are you the chosen one? Or, did you make a lucky call? Honestly, did you know? Were you blessed with divine ordination to know that last March 9, the market would hit a bottom? Or did you throw some dirt against the wall and have it stick? Because, you see, the average guy watching you doesn’t know any better. He thinks you actually know. So, the next time you say the market is going up or down; the average investor will most likely follow your lead. You, of course, get to sit there with no liability whatsoever ala your cohort, Jim Kramer. Folks, television people don’t know anymore than you do. I have no ax to grind. After all, I am a television guy. That’s how I know we don’t know. In fact, truth be told, Nobody Knows Nothing! Never have and never will.

The amazing thing to me is that the average guy believes that they do have knowledge that they need to listen to. Folks, what they say on television regarding the short term move in the market is a guess, and your money is far too important to rely on guesses. Let me share a story. I gave a speech to 1,000 really smart people who worked in finance. The mantra of my speech is always that nobody knows nothing. I spent an hour trying to dispel the myth that people in the media are privy to information that you are not privy to. After the speech, we opened up the floor for Q and A and the very first question came from an elderly woman in the front row.

“So, what do you think IBM is going to do?”

I very politely asked if the microphone had been on for the last hour. I then asked her if she understood what I was saying; that I really did not have any kind of crystal ball whether it be for the market or for an individual stock in the short term. I then asked her if she believed me, and, to my astonishment, she said that she did not.

“So, you think I know?”

“Yes”.

“Why do you think that?”

“Because you are supposed to.”

And, there you have it. People think Mark Hanes knows. He doesn’t, and that is the real skinny.