The Massachusetts Senate campaign begins its last day. Voting is tomorrow. We hope that, tomorrow night, we will see the beginning of the end of the old order.

We should be hopeful, but guardedly so. The polls published late yesterday all show Scott Brown ahead, by five to ten points. We expect new polls today, even tomorrow morning.

But remember the old adage: The only poll that counts is the one on election day.

Tomorrow’s election will be decided by turnout. Scott Brown’s troops have the enthusiasm. Martha Coakley’s troops….wait, she wouldn’t say troops. She would say multicultural electoral caregivers. At any rate, Martha’s MECs have the Democratic machine, and it is formidable in Massachusetts.

We will look today for the following things: 1) any last-minute “revelations” about Brown by the Coakheads. In other words, any last-minute smears. 2) The impact of King Day on the African-American community’s attitude toward the election, which up to now has been indifferent. 3) Any sign of a last-minute shift, either way, as a result of Obama’s visit to Massachusetts yesterday.

CNN’s Ed Henry is reporting this morning that the White House believes Coakley will lose. This can be a case of trying to lower expectations. Or, more likely, they actually believe it.

Coakley, given certain conditions, including changes in the weather, can still pull it out. Don’t underestimate the Democrats of the Bay State. But we should be hoping for a convincing Brown win of five points or more – enough to prevent strange things from being done with the vote count.

We’ll be monitoring this today, tonight, and through tomorrow night.

FROM URGENT AGENDA (WWW.URGENTAGENDA.COM)

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