In an upstate New York special congressional election next week, conservatives are rushing to the aid of a third-party candidate who could guarantee the seat switches to the Democrats. And they don’t seem to care.
It’s not that they like Democrat Bill Owens or wish to fatten Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s ranks. They are on a safari gunning for a RINO, the “Republican In Name Only” acronym slapped on insufficiently conservative Republicans.
The target of the moment is Dede Scozzafava, chosen by the state Republican party to succeed a Republican she resembles, 23rd District incumbent John McHugh, who has left to be secretary of the Army.
She opposes Obamacare and cap and trade, and she sports an NRA endorsement. But she also packs the moderate-to-outright liberal slate of beliefs common to many Republicans in the region. So in the era of tea parties and town halls, she is viewed by many as an unfit standard bearer in a race the nation will be watching.
Accountant Doug Hoffman of Lake Placid wanted to give conservative voters a more conservative option. He stands to do one of two things: make history with his own unorthodox run or split Republican votes sufficiently to hand the district to the Democrat.
You might think the possibility of that split vote would dampen conservative support for Hoffman. You might think the prime conservative goal is keeping that seat Republican.
You would be wrong. The people lining up behind Hoffman say they are looking at the big picture and looking to deliver a message: Give us reliable conservatives and lose the squishy moderates.
But while Scozzafava trails Hoffman and Owens in a new poll, two surveys with sample sizes twice as large show her a close second to Owens. And a big money boost is arriving from the National Republican Congressional Committee, representing the GOP power structure’s belief that she stands a better chance of keeping the seat Republican.
The NRCC will work hard to bolster Scozzafava’s conservative credentials. Even more aggressive are the talking points painting Conservative Party challenger Hoffman as a flip-flopper.
Democrat Owens gets to watch his two opponents take swings at each other while his unperturbed base drools at picking up a seat. That is the most likely by-product of the intensifying Republican Civil War.
If the Hoffman candidacy helps elevate a Democrat, backers will say they delivered a successful shot across the bow of those seeking to nudge the GOP toward the middle.
But the fact is that in a number of districts across America, that’s exactly where the party is, and it’s not budging. From New England across various purple states, many Republican seats are held by candidates who reflect the taste of voters who are not as staunchly conservative as their brethren in the Mountain West, Deep South or parts of Texas.
This New York district fell narrowly for Obama nine months ago. I don’t want to lose that seat to the Democrats. I wish Hoffman were the Republican nominee, but he’s not. He will enjoy a pile of out-of-state money and support, and the love of conservatives who dream of every GOP candidacy filled by a Reagan clone.
But some districts will never go for such a candidate. This may be one of them. I don’t believe Hoffman can win, and in the meantime, I will take a pro-gun rights, anti-cap and trade, anti-Obamacare Republican whom I oppose on some other issues over a Democrat whom I will oppose on every issue.
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