Political Mavens » Iran’s Missiles are its oldest and current top priority

2006

Twenty years later, Iran’s regime hasn’t changed its strategies. A report was published by the weekly al Muharrer (in Arabic) under the title “Iran future plans are to deploy missiles in Syria and Lebanon.” Hamid Ghuriafi wrote: “Iranian missiles in Syria and the Bekaa capable of reaching France, Great Britain and Germany. The analysis of Dr Walid Phares, Senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies in Washington, presented to US and Western defense circles, demonstrate that the ultimate strategic aim of the Ahmedinijad regime is to deploy its missiles in Syria, and in some locations in Lebanon as a way to put a number of European countries and the Sixth Fleet under its reach.” The article says it has confirmed this analysis with sources from Western defense in the US, Britain and within moderate Arab countries. Arabic -(July 1, 2006) [ Visit Website ]

2007

In an article titled “Misestimating Iran’s Nuclear Strategies” published in the Counter Terrorism Blog and several outlets on December 7, 2007 I wrote: “The NIE (National Intelligence Estimate) failed to see and explain that the 2003 decision was a change of strategy not a halt to a strategy; for the Ahmadinejad plan was to ensnare the US in Iraq so that it couldn’t destroy the process of Iran’s shifting the balance of power in its crucial early stages. Tragically, what was missed in Washington is that Tehran was building the missiles before completing the fissile. While attention was focused on the uranium enrichment process, the Pasdaran were setting up the delivery system, i.e., the actual threat system.” I argued in short: “It is the missiles not the fissile.” http://counterterrorismblog.org/2007/12/misestimating_irans_nuclear_st.php

2008

In 2008, I presented briefings to the US House Caucus on Counter Terrorism and at the European Parliament, warning about the long range missiles “intentions” of Tehran. On October 30, 2008, I published an article under the title “EMP: The Next Iranian strategic threat to the US Mainland?” Eventually I argued, Iran’s regime wants to possess the ability to affect US national security and Western stability, let alone the region’s security. [ Visit Website ] and here on November 9, 2008 [ Visit Website ]

2009

In 2009, I continued to brief US and European legislators on the long term projection of the Iranian strategic command: covering the Middle East and eventually uncover missiles which can reach points on US mainland. Here is an interview with NewsMax Review on “Iranian missiles eventually reaching the US, the outreach to the Muslim world and other issues.” [ Visit Website ] Apr 13, 2009.

On Canada’s World Tonight CHQR on April 15, 2009 I addressed the Iranian forthcoming missiles threat [ Visit Website ]. On April 16, I argued that Iran’s missiles capability already covers the Middle East and US bases, and eventually parts of the West. [ Visit Website ]

On June 9, 2009, I argued on Fox News TV that Iran has a missiles strategy “which by now covers the Middle East and Europe.” In short they are ready on the missiles front. I added that Tehran is already acquiring the counter-missiles capacity as well. They are already thinking of how to defend their missiles with anti-missiles, even before the US and the West would make the initial decision to confront Iranian capabilities. They are ahead in the game.

On June 13, 2009 I projected in an interview with Newsmax Magazine that the intention of Khamenei is to transform Iran into a “Jihadist Soviet Union.” I argued that “this regime will waste America’s time as long as possible, so that we begin our next cycle of elections. And they will try to waste another cycle – that’s another four years. … That’s eight years, basically, for them to become a nuclear power with nuclear missiles and ability to be invincible in the sense of what was the case in the Cold War between the Soviet Union and the United States.” [ Visit Website ]

On September 7, I told Jennifer Griffin on the Fox News Special Report that “Ahmedinijad wants to talk with President Obama as the head of a nuclear Iran not the head of a non nuclear Iran.” Ahmedinijad feels he had his so-called election behind him, that he crushed the opposition, that he has the support of Khamenei and that the US and the West will not go far in their sanctions or actions. That is why he is moving forward on all tracks: gradually building the weapon, developing the missiles and acquiring launching territorial pads.”

On September 14, I told Russia Today TV that “Iran’s most urgent priority is gaining time to build its missiles strategic capability. ” [ Visit Website ]

Today’s Reuters reporting on the Iranian missiles tests only confirm what has been a permanent, steady and expanding Iranian strategy, which unfortunately was not confronted in its early stages. The last question now is: what can the United States and its allies do about it? While we may be able to muster some support for a sanction regime against the development of fissile material, it is unlikely that these sanctions will stop Khamanei and Ahmedinijad from quitting their relentless missiles development program. And time is not our ally in responding to this conundrum.

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Dr Walid Phares is the author of The Confrontation: Winning the War against Future Jihad and the Director of the Future Terrorism Project at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He teaches Global Strategies in Washington DC.

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