Afghanistan needs more sociologists, not more troops. Sociologists would point out that Americans tend to see this country as one nation, with a central government and national security forces. But it actually is a collection of tribes—(including Tajik, Uzbek and Hazara). The first loyalty of most members of these tribes is to their own kind, not to the national government. Most Afghans correctly perceive the national government as corrupt to the core, in cahoots with drug lords, promoted by foreign powers, and the beneficiary of fraudulent elections.

We have been trying for eight years to straighten out this government, to no avail. We should now work with the local tribes and their natural leaders, rather than seek to impose a false national order on them.We should let the people of Afghanistan duke it out with the Taliban, to determine how much of a sharia regime they are willing to tolerate. However, we should not allow our young people to be killed for rights most Afghans do not want. Surely, they show no sign that they are willing to die for them.

We should make it clear that if the Afghans ever again allow their turf to be used as a base for terrorists, we shall bomb the daylights out of them. However, we need not be in Afghanistan to do this. Finally, we should not lump the Taliban—keen to run their own country— in with Al Qaeda, which seeks to harm us. True, these two are now allies, but this is the case at least in part because we treat them as if they were of one kind.

President Obama conducted a strategic review of Afghanistan. It concluded that we should seek “to disrupt, dismantle, and defeat Al Qaida in Pakistan and Afghanistan and to prevent their return to either country in the future.” This is a precise and narrow goal that can be achieved, as long as we understand that we cannot get there by nation building—a task which is simply beyond our reach. Let the Afghan people form the local governments they favor, and let these form inter-regional alliances, and let us leave them be. Most of the Afghans will be happy in return to let us be.

A someone who was around during the Vietnam War, I predict that whatever number of troops President Obama will now agree to add to the war in Afghanistan, the generals will come back and ask for more. If those are not sent, critics will attribute to this “failure”—the reason Afghanistan will not be stabilized. Best to get off this bloody escalator now.

Amitai Etzioni is Professor of International Relations at The George Washington University. For more discussion, see his book: Security First (Yale, 2007), or http://www.gwu.edu/~ccps/securityfirst.html.   email: icps@gwu.edu

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