The likelihood of a US attack on Iran is almost zero.  Simple reason: the Straits of Hormuz.  Through this Iranian controlled waterway, roughly 40 percent of the world’s crude oil passes every day, including two-thirds of the oil from Saudi Arabia.  This is enough reason for the US to veto an Israeli attack.  But there is no reason whatever to expect diplomacy to give up its drive to become a nuclear power.  As for tougher sanctions, Germany, Russia, and China have invested too much in Iran to cooperate.  So, I think the US will do nothing more than help some reformers, hoping that that Iran’s bleak economy will produce regime change.  www.PaulEidelberg.com

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