Intrade was right again—they caught the Biden surge.
Intrade gives Obama a very small bounce from this, about 3 percent. Welcome news for Obama after a tough couple of weeks.
TV will be filled with video of Biden’s attacks on Obama during the primary. Even though they favor Obama, they can’t resist the lure of video which is in recent archives and easy to get to. McCain should make an ad entirely out of Biden quotes, and get it out fast.
I’m not sure that a pro-abortion Catholic really helps in God-and-guns, small-town America. The press will play up Biden as a Pennsylvanian because he was born in Scranton and because Delaware is next to us. This is a reach. Delaware knows that it’s next to Pennsylvania, but Pennsylvania doesn’t know that it’s next to Delaware.
All the more important, then, that McCain doesn’t go with Ridge. I like Ridge, quite a lot. If McCain wins, Tom will make a fine Attorney General.
Romney’s gotten a pretty big bump in the future’s market. Either rumors are saying Romney, or Romney is seen as a counterbalance to Biden. I think it’s the latter.
The way to balance a middle-aged man is a young woman, Sarah Palin.
The deep race/gender division in the Democratic party which has been brewing for 40 years, but bubbled over this year, is worsened by this pick. Hillary supporters (of whom Obama only had half) will feel the insult. They should. Hillary was the natural choice to unite the party.
This is bad news for Obama-cons who hope that Barack will turn out deep down to be a growth guy. Biden has a 0% rating from Club for Growth.
All in all, what we learned about Barack is that when he has a lead, he plays it safe, not bold. That he won’t choose a genuine rival (like Clinton) for Veep because he’s no Abraham Lincoln. That centrism for which he is often extolled, seems to be illusory. That women are still in the back of bus.
This article originally appeared on CNBC.com on Saturday, August 23rd.
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