Slow gradually tighter and tighter sanctions do not work. First, their effects are too subtle to be detected clearly by the targeted population. Second, ways can be found and have been found to pretty much nullify those effects. That is the reason the international sanctions against Iran have failed to achieve anything except prove to Iranians (and not only to Iranians) yet again that “America cannot do a damn thing” and the rest of the world is not going even to try. After all, this all happened before during the Iranian hostage crisis.
Shirin Ebadi recalls:
Once Ayatollah Khomeini celebrated the (embassy) siege, calling it “second revolution,” no one dared contradict him in public. Many Iranians were deeply opposed to taking of hostages, but they said nothing outside their homes, fearful of being accused of being an American agent and sentenced to prison. The supporters of the siege gave no thought to Iran’s reputation in the world. The Ayatollah had said, “America cannot do a damn thing,” and this slogan was soon painted all over Tehran. A deceptive pride held people enthralled. They thought that by successfully taking the U.S. embassy they had defeated America.
Well, perhaps not America as such but certainly it’s foreign policy makers. Ronald Reagan sent the Ayatolla cake and sold him weapons. Clinton tried incentives. His secretary of state Albright announced the end of some sanctions and “acknowledged” past AMERICAN misdeeds in the effort to end a “wall of mistrust.” He got nothing in return and that was during the best of Iran’s post revolutionary period, during the “moderate” Khatami one. What was Iran doing then? According to Albright, the same think it is doing now!
‘’To date the political developments in Iran have not caused its military to cease its determined effort to acquire the technology, materials and assistance needed to develop nuclear weapons,'’ she said. Nor have the intelligence services chosen ‘’to get out of the terrorism business,'’ she said.
And George W. Bush? After a forceful beginning which, indeed, scarred the Iranians into the suspension of some of their nuclear activities in 2003, he relented. At the moment, he is running around Europe extracting useless promises for additional ineffectual sanctions.
Bush is nothing but another helpless Jimmy Carter, Ahmadinejad assures Iranians:
“It’s Bush’s dream to harm Iran’s nation,'’ Ahmadinejad said today during a televised speech in the western Iranian city of Shahre Kord. “You thought you would be able to do something but your term came to an end and you will not be capable of harming even 1 centimeter of Iran’s sacred land.'’
Of course, the issue is not capability but will power. And at stake are not a group of American hostages but an Iran equipped with nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them. Time has been on her side. It is difficult to fault the Iranians for believing Ahmadinejad has it right. Nothing that happened up to this point could disabuse them of that notion. George W. Bush may well declare victory in Iraq and leave but no one will be fooled.
Just as in 1980 the real victor was Khomeini, the real victor in 2008 will be Ahmadinejad. And the rest will be history.
For more on my History News Network blog, click here
Have PoliticalMavens.com delivered to your inbox in a daily digest by clicking here
